AI infrastructure surveillance · analysis completed 2026-10-20 18:49:10 UTC
Blue Owl Capital
CIK 0001823945 · status clean · overall tier low. Composite below 3.5, no stated S&P condition breached, no dimension at 4 or above, and no stated S&P condition within 10%.
Business risk
Engine tier: low · engine tier low
Key factors
- TTM FOCF positive with capex intensity 0.02 < 0.3 scoring_rules.md 5.4
- no uncommenced lease figure disclosed in the reviewed filings scoring_rules.md 5.4
Financial risk
Engine tier: low · engine tier low
Key factors
- ffo_to_debt_pct 35.7% sits at band index 2 (position only, synthetic inputs) Corporate Methodology Table 17
- debt_to_ebitda_x 2.4x sits at band index 2 (position only, synthetic inputs) Corporate Methodology Table 17
Liquidity gate
Engine tier: low · engine tier low
Key factors
- gate state pass: post-event A/B 4.38x vs 1.2x fail / 1.32x pass; stressed A-B 1,390,832,010 scoring_rules.md 4.3
Governance evidence
Engine tier: not scored · no evidence flags
Key factors
- no governance evidence flags identified in the reviewed filings scoring_rules.md 4.5
Full report
No memo in this snapshot.
S&P stated conditions
S&P's own published conditions, excerpts verified on the live public page. Distances name their basis.
| Side | Condition | Stated level | Engine value | Distance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| unfavorable | weighted average leverage (well above)"We could lower the ratings if weighted average leverage is well above 3x due to additional debt-financed acquisitions, its FPAUM growth and investment performance stagnate, and weighted average EBITDA interest coverage is below 10x" | 3x | n/a | n/a | 2025-04-22 |
| favorable | leverage and coverage"we could raise the ratings if Blue Owl maintains debt to EBITDA of below 2x and EBITDA interest coverage above 10x" | 2x | n/a | n/a | 2025-04-22 |
Distances compare as-reported proxies with S&P's adjusted levels unless the basis says otherwise; for CoreWeave and Applied Digital the proxy understates leverage (S&P adjustments for leases and guarantees are not applied). Business rules: internal calibration v0, not validated (scoring_rules.md 5). Open analyst inputs: cash_and_liquid_investments, contracted_acquisitions, contracted_asset_sales, debt_maturities_12m, debt_to_ebitda_x, expected_capex, expected_shareholder_distributions, ffo_to_debt_pct, uncommenced_lease_commitments_usd, undrawn_committed_facilities_maturing_beyond_12m, working_capital_change_12m.