With and without the event
Boston Scientific: outage scenarios
The filing does not state a duration, so the engine runs three outage lengths and reports a range, never a point.
Shock, computed in code
lost EBITDA = EBITDA × affected share × disruption fraction × days / 365
- Affected share
- 1.0 Derived upper bound: affected segment not identified (2 reportable segments)
- Disruption fraction
- 0.5 internal calibration partial disruption
- Outage days
- Low 7 · Base 21 · High 42 scenario, internal calibration
Scenarios side by side
lost EBITDA = EBITDA × affected share × disruption fraction × days / 365
| Measure | Pre-event | Low · 7 days | Base · 21 days | High · 42 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost EBITDA (USD m) | n/a | 48Derived | 143Derived | 287Derived |
| FFO to debt | 35.9%Verified | 35.4%Verified | 34.6%Verified | 33.4%Verified |
| Debt to EBITDA | 2.30xVerified | 2.32xVerified | 2.36xVerified | 2.44xVerified |
| Ratio band moved | n/a | No | No | No |
| Business risk tier | n/a | Moderate | Elevated | Elevated |
| Overall tier | n/a | High | High | High |
Quantification pass
When the next 10-Q or guidance states the cost, lost revenue and any insurance recovery, those figures replace the scenarios and the issuer is re-scored as a new row on the audit trail. The first score is never edited.