Disclosure pass · scored on the day of the 8-K
Credit materiality by dimension
Re-scored as a new audit trail row when the next 10-Q states the cost. The first score is never edited.
Overall materiality
Moderate to elevated
The overall tier is the highest of Financial Risk, Business Risk and the Liquidity gate. Governance evidence can only raise it. There is no weighted average. scoring_rules.md 4.5scoring_rules.md 4.6
low
moderate
elevated
high
Low · 7 days ModerateBase · 21 days ElevatedHigh · 42 days Elevated
Financial risk
FFO to debt and debt to EBITDA, before and after the shock, against S&P published bands.
Low
FFO to debt35.9%Verifiedpre-event
Debt to EBITDA2.30xVerifiedpre-event
Pre-eventAfter shock, high caseWithin 10% of a band boundary
Corporate Methodology Table 17, standard volatility Corporate Methodology Table 17
Why
- Low (7 days): FFO to debt 35.9% to 35.4%, stays in the 30% to 45% band. 18.1% from the 30% boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
- Low (7 days): Debt to EBITDA 2.30x to 2.32x, stays in the 2x to 3x band. 22.7% from the 3x boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
- Base (21 days): FFO to debt 35.9% to 34.6%, stays in the 30% to 45% band. 15.4% from the 30% boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
- Base (21 days): Debt to EBITDA 2.30x to 2.36x, stays in the 2x to 3x band. 21.2% from the 3x boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
- High (42 days): FFO to debt 35.9% to 33.4%, stays in the 30% to 45% band. 11.2% from the 30% boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
- High (42 days): Debt to EBITDA 2.30x to 2.44x, stays in the 2x to 3x band. 18.8% from the 3x boundary, outside the 10% borderline zone.
Business risk
Operational status, share of earnings in the affected unit, outage length, data type.
Moderate to Elevated
low
moderate
elevated
high
| Scenario | Driver | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Low | partial disruption, outage of 7 days. | Moderate |
| Base | outage of 21 days, at or above the 14-day threshold. | Elevated |
| High | outage of 42 days, at or above the 14-day threshold. | Elevated |
- Affected unit share
- 1.0 Derived upper bound: affected segment not identified (2 reportable segments)
- Data types
- unknown Derived
- Third-party impact
- Needs analyst input
Why
- Low: partial disruption, outage of 7 days.
- Base: outage of 21 days, at or above the 14-day threshold.
- High: outage of 42 days, at or above the 14-day threshold.
Liquidity gate
Sources over uses for 12 months after the event cost, with a 15% EBITDA stress.
High
low
moderate
elevated
high
| Input | USD m | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Cash (source) | 539Verified | filing as of 2026-06-30 · excerpt |
| Undrawn committed facilities, beyond 12 months (source) | 1,311Verified | filing as of 2026-06-30 · excerpt |
| Contracted asset sales (source) | 0 | n/a |
| Working capital change, 12 months (source) | (210) | n/a |
| Debt maturing in 12 months (use) | 1,709Verified | filing as of 2026-06-30 · excerpt |
| Capex (use) | 876Derived | filing as of 2026-06-30 · excerpt |
| Contracted acquisitions (use) | 11,000Verified | filing as of 2026-06-30 · excerpt |
| Shareholder distributions (use) | 615 | n/a |
Governance evidence
Flags that can only raise the overall tier, never lower it.
No flags in this pass
Why
- Low: no flags, overall tier moderate.
- Base: no flags, overall tier elevated.
- High: no flags, overall tier elevated.
Outage scenarios
lost EBITDA = EBITDA × affected share × disruption fraction × days / 365
| Measure | Pre-event | Low · 7 days | Base · 21 days | High · 42 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost EBITDA (USD m) | n/a | 48Derived | 143Derived | 287Derived |
| FFO to debt | 35.9%Verified | 35.4%Verified | 34.6%Verified | 33.4%Verified |
| Debt to EBITDA | 2.30xVerified | 2.32xVerified | 2.36xVerified | 2.44xVerified |
| Ratio band moved | n/a | No | No | No |
| Business risk tier | n/a | Moderate | Elevated | Elevated |
| Overall tier | n/a | High | High | High |
Financial context, FY2025 (USD m)
As-reported proxies. S&P adjustments not applied.
DerivedVerifiedNeeds analyst input
| Metric | USD m | Provenance | XBRL tags or formula |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,981Derived | Derived | OperatingIncomeLoss + DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization |
| Debt | 11,436Derived | Derived | DebtCurrent + LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations |
| FFO | 4,101Derived | Derived | OperatingIncomeLoss + DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization + InterestPaidNet + IncomeTaxesPaidNet |
| CFO | 4,534Verified | Verified | NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities |
| FOCF | 3,658Derived | Derived | NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities + PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment |
| DCF | Needs analyst input | Derived | NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities + PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipmentmissing: dividends_paid, share_repurchases |
| Cash interest | 319Verified | Verified | InterestPaidNet |
| Operating leases (shown separately) | 536Verified | Verified | OperatingLeaseLiability |